Marine heatwaves and ocean warming are rapidly reshaping our coastal ecosystems, putting the foundation species of our global oceans—kelp forests—at unprecedented risk.

Knowledge gap

When predicting how climate change will redistribute marine species, traditional distribution models often rely on the niche conservatism hypothesis.

They assume all individuals of a species have identical environmental requirements, completely overlooking the crucial role of intraspecific genetic variation and local evolutionary adaptations.

Main approach

In our latest research, we integrated population genomics with advanced ecological niche modelling using machine learning.

We mapped the genetic lineages of three cold-temperate kelp species across the North Atlantic and used maximum entropy algorithms to project their future habitat suitability under different SSP climate scenarios.

Technological challenge

The primary hurdle was moving beyond broad, species-level predictions to create precise, lineage-level models.

We assembled diverse molecular datasets to detect genetically divergent lineages across the Northeast and Northwest Atlantic, and then optimized specialized machine learning models to capture the distinct realized niches of these localized gene pools.

Main finding

We found that sea-surface temperature is the dominant driver of cold-temperate kelp distribution.

While our lineage-level models predict a northward gain in suitable habitats, they also reveal a critical loss of unique and endemic genetic variation at the southern edges of their ranges, particularly in regions like the Canadian Maritimes, northern UK, and France.

Main implications

To support the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, biodiversity conservation cannot solely focus on species-level presence. We must actively manage our ecosystems with a focus on genetic diversity:

Conservation efforts must target localized, climate-vulnerable genetic pools to avoid the irreversible regional extinction of resilient kelp genotypes.

Future climate resilience planning should prioritize trailing-edge populations in regions like the Gulf of Maine and the Biscay Bay.