The global ocean is changing fast, and managing its future requires the best possible data. We release a comprehensive dataset of contemporary and future geographical distributions for 980 key marine ecosystem structuring species.

Why is this important?

Data on species distributions are vital for effective conservation and management policies, especially as climate change accelerates. Yet, previous global assessments have often overlooked the very species that build and maintain marine ecosystems—the “ecosystem engineers”—and have relied on outdated climate scenarios.

These structuring species, like seagrasses, kelps, fucoids (rockweeds), and cold-water corals, provide numerous ecological and socioeconomic services, from creating nurseries for fish to protecting coastlines. Without understanding their fate, our conservation strategies risk being incomplete.

What did we do?

We’ve filled this critical gap by providing range maps for these vital species under a range of current and future conditions:

Present-day: We modeled distributions based on data from 2010 to 2020.

Future Scenarios (2090–2100): Crucially, our projections use the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, aligning our findings with current international climate policies, including: (SSP1-1.9) a low-emission scenario consistent with the ambitious Paris Agreement goals; and (SSP3-7.0 & SSP5-8.5) higher emission scenarios under reduced mitigation efforts.

These models were developed using advanced machine learning algorithms and integrated the most comprehensive, quality-controlled datasets of species occurrence records with high-resolution, biologically relevant environmental variables.

The Impact

This new dataset provides a powerful tool for strategic and effective conservation policy. By integrating the best aspects of species distribution modeling across these key ecosystem structuring species, our work holds the potential to significantly enhance the resilience of ocean ecosystems worldwide.